A New Chapter or Tactical Pause? Deciphering the Pakistan–US Equation

 

By Atiq Chaudhary

The complex equation defining the Pakistan–United States relationship cannot be reduced to the recent, widely publicized meeting between Pakistan’s leadership and President Donald Trump. While the personal invitation extended by Trump to Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif—and the Prime Minister's subsequent re-nomination of Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize—has dominated headlines, it only signals the surface of a far more critical moment. Global attention is currently focused on Islamabad, partly due to its role in the Gaza peace process, making this a pivotal time for Pak-U.S. relations amid new geopolitical power dynamics. Foreign policy analysts agree: Pakistan is now attempting a high-stakes diplomatic tightrope walk, balancing its core interests between the U.S., China, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey. The engagement, which Islamabad presents as a legitimizing endorsement, is much more than a diplomatic photo-op; it is a critical juncture demanding strategic precision to convert geopolitical spotlight into concrete, sustainable national gain. Any serious analysis must first contend with the “Trump variable.” His political career has been defined by a wholesale rejection of traditional diplomacy, replacing it with a transactional and unpredictable style. This approach has often kept both allies and adversaries perpetually uncertain. His fluctuating stance on India is a case in point. Despite earlier describing Prime Minister Narendra Modi as a close friend, Trump has recently threatened to revoke strategic privileges granted to New Delhi, citing unfair trade practices and regional destabilization. Equally striking are Trump’s repeated claims of having “mediated” to avert a nuclear conflict between Pakistan and India. For Pakistan, this presents both risk and opportunity: the risk of overreliance on personal chemistry with a mercurial leader, but also the opportunity to reset terms of engagement in a way that underscores Pakistan’s indispensability to regional peace and global security.

To understand Pakistan’s cautious optimism, one must also acknowledge the historical baggage. The narrative that the U.S. has been a “fair-weather friend” is deeply embedded in Pakistan’s strategic consciousness. From Cold War alliances to the post-9/11 war on terror, Pakistan has repeatedly paid the price for partnership. More than 70,000 lives were lost, the economy suffered damages exceeding $150 billion, and the social fabric was deeply scarred. Yet, the refrain from Washington was always the same: “do more.” This sense of betrayal has been a driving force behind Pakistan’s pivot toward China, cementing the “all-weather” strategic partnership most visibly through the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). China offered unconditional support at moments when Pakistan’s sovereignty and survival were at stake. Thus, any fresh opening with Washington cannot and should not come at the expense of ties with Beijing—it must instead be framed as a complementary equation.

The Islamabad–Washington interaction also signals a deliberate shift in Pakistan’s foreign policy doctrine: a pivot from geopolitics to geo-economics. Pakistan no longer wishes to be viewed merely through the prism of security or as a “frontline state” in someone else’s war. Instead, Islamabad aims to project itself as a “sovereign bridge”—a country defined by its vast market of 240 million people, its strategic centrality at the crossroads of South, Central, and West Asia, and its abundant human and natural resources. The agenda under discussion—ranging from trade and investment to artificial intelligence, renewable energy, and technology transfer—reflects this ambition. The United States remains Pakistan’s single largest export market, and there is vast potential for expanding trade beyond the traditional textile sector into pharmaceuticals, IT services, and agriculture technology. Moving from aid dependency to trade-driven partnership is the cornerstone of Pakistan’s new economic vision.

The reality, however, is that Pakistan’s economic needs are urgent. Continued support from international financial institutions such as the IMF, World Bank, and ADB remains crucial for macroeconomic stability, and U.S. influence in these institutions is undeniable. Strong ties with Washington are therefore indispensable—not as an act of subservience, but as a strategic necessity to stabilize Pakistan’s economy and build investor confidence. At the same time, economic diplomacy must be accompanied by a nuanced security dialogue. Access to advanced military hardware, counter-terrorism intelligence sharing, and defense cooperation remain vital, especially in the context of resurgent terrorism along Pakistan’s western border. Islamabad’s message to Washington is clear: a stable, secure, and economically vibrant Pakistan is not just in Pakistan’s interest, but in the global interest.

No discussion of South Asian geopolitics can bypass the unresolved question of Jammu and Kashmir. Pakistan has consistently highlighted India’s actions in the occupied territory—ranging from demographic engineering to human rights violations—as the central obstacle to lasting peace. In international forums, Islamabad has argued that the path to stability in South Asia runs through a just resolution of the Kashmir dispute, in line with UN Security Council resolutions. For Pakistan, persuading Washington to adopt a more balanced approach on Kashmir is not merely a diplomatic exercise; it is a moral imperative. Any durable peace in the region is impossible without addressing the grievances of the Kashmiri people. Trump’s past references to “mediation” may have been self-serving, but they nonetheless reflected the international recognition that Kashmir is a flashpoint capable of igniting wider conflict.

Perhaps the most delicate dimension of Pakistan’s strategy is managing its simultaneous relationships with both China and the United States. CPEC remains the flagship of Pakistan’s economic transformation, while Washington remains critical for trade access, technology, and financial support. Framing these relationships as complementary rather than contradictory requires deft diplomacy. Pakistan must project itself not as a pawn in a zero-sum great-power contest, but as a sovereign actor capable of maintaining balanced ties with both Beijing and Washington. This balancing act also aligns with Pakistan’s emerging identity as a regional connector. With Gwadar Port, expanding road and rail infrastructure, and a central position linking the Gulf, Central Asia, and Western China, Pakistan is uniquely positioned to serve as a trade and energy hub. The message to the U.S. is simple: supporting Pakistan’s geoeconomic vision is in the interest of regional stability and global commerce.

The warm reception in Washington, like earlier engagements in other capitals, is undoubtedly a diplomatic opportunity. But opportunities are fleeting unless backed by strategy. The real test for Pakistan lies not in the optics of meetings, but in its ability to craft a coherent long-term vision—one that strengthens economic sovereignty, ensures security, and advances its rightful place in global decision-making. This is not the time for complacency. Islamabad must demonstrate that it seeks partnership, not patronage; respect, not relief. The world is watching to see whether Pakistan can redefine its international standing on the basis of economic promise and diplomatic foresight rather than strategic desperation.

In the end, this is more than a handshake moment—it is a chance for Pakistan to write a new chapter in its foreign policy narrative. The challenge is to convert this tactical pause into a strategic breakthrough. Success will depend on whether Islamabad can remain steadfast in pursuing its geoe conomic vision, while balancing historical realities and geopolitical compulsions. For a nation that has endured wars, betrayals, and immense sacrifices, this moment must not be squandered. Pakistan’s message to the world should be unambiguous: we are not merely a partner of convenience, but a resilient nation with a vision, ready to engage the global order on equal terms.

Atiq Chaudhary is a PhD research scholar and journalist specializing in socio-political issues, governance, and international affairs.