CRISIS IN THE FIELDS: Wheat Policy Paralysis Pushes Pakistan Toward Food Catastrophe

Atiq Chaudhary   

Pakistan’s agriculture, often romanticized as the “backbone” of our economy, is not merely ailing—it is facing a systemic collapse. This crisis, centered on the volatility of the wheat crop, is a damning indictment of a nation that boasts fertile lands and one of the world’s largest irrigation networks yet struggles to feed itself. A sector contributing 24% to the GDP and employing over 40% of the labor force is being strangled by a complex web of climatic disaster, technological apathy, and crippling policy incoherence. The farmer’s lament is no longer about low wheat prices; it is a desperate cry against a system that forces him to sail between the punitive demands of international lenders and the confusing reversals of his own government. The government's wheat policy is mired in utter confusion, a state of paralysis that undermines any path to recovery, as it is caught between the global financial imperative to liberalize markets and the political compulsion to appease its local farming base.

To secure funding, the government agreed to a key benchmark of the IMF programme: the implementation of a free wheat market mechanism, scrapping the decades-old system of Minimum Support Prices (MSP) and public procurement. This structural shift, meant to end market distortions, has been paired with two other devastating IMF demands that attack the very foundation of farm viability: first, the imposition of an income tax up to 45% on agricultural income for farmers earning over Rs. 5.6 million annually, which, combined with rising costs, is set to cripple the middle-class farmer; and second, the aggressive push by both the IMF and the World Bank for the elimination of "traditional regressive subsidies" like the Minimum Support Price (MSP) and tube well support.

Farmer leaders warn that eliminating MSP and state support will only hike production costs, compelling cultivators to abandon essential food grains like wheat for cash crops, thus deepening reliance on costly imports. Against this backdrop of global pressure, the government has introduced a baffling policy reversal. It recently fixed Rs.3,500 per 40 kg as the new Minimum Support Price for the next harvest to protect growers from a repeat of the price crash witnessed during the last harvest. However, this move directly contradicts the commitment to the IMF to allow market forces to determine prices, leading to profound policy incoherence: if a free market is mandated, who exactly is obligated to buy the farmers’ grain at the officially fixed rate? This policy duality ensures the system benefits only the influential middlemen, trapping small farmers in the same cycle of dependency. Furthermore, while the government is offering the Electronic Warehouse Receipt Financing (EWRF) mechanism as a market-based modernization tool, it is reportedly turning it into a backdoor subsidy by shouldering the cost of borrowing itself. This approach merely makes the EWRF a tool for circumventing IMF restrictions rather than a genuine structural reform.

This policy confusion has translated into alarming economic figures, signaling a direct threat to national food security. Data from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) reveals that the updated agricultural growth rate for Fiscal Year (FY) 2025 stood at a meager 1.51%, which is tragically insufficient for a country with Pakistan’s demographic pressures. The primary driver of this sluggishness is the catastrophic performance of major crops—wheat, cotton, and rice—which registered a negative growth of -13.12%. . The World Bank, in its reports (as of October 2025), projects real GDP growth for FY 2026 at a mere 2.6%, largely conditioned by an anticipated minimum 10% decline in agricultural output in Punjab due to persistent climatic and economic stressors.

The farmer's financial misery is exacerbated by operational inefficiency driven by technological neglect and climatic devastation. Pakistani farmers remain tethered to traditional, low-yield farming methods because agricultural research institutions are chronically underfunded, preventing the development of high-yield, climate-resilient seed varieties. The essential shift to modern irrigation methods like Drip Irrigation remains an unfulfilled promise. A well-entrenched mafia dealing in counterfeit and substandard seeds, fertilizers, and pesticides continues to financially ruin farmers, who are already forced to take on heavy debt just to acquire essential, albeit low-quality, inputs. Compounding this, recurring, devastating floods have obliterated agricultural infrastructure, with initial damage estimates exceeding a staggering 900 billion rupees, rendering vast tracts of once-fertile land uncultivable. The World Bank and the ADB have both specifically warned of the compounding effects of climate variability—unseasonal rainfall, drought, and heatwaves—which now impact Pakistan's annual crop yields with destructive regularity.

To move beyond this state of perpetual crisis, an urgent, cohesive, and long-term agricultural reform package is essential. Firstly, the government must assure a reliable guaranteed sales price for the crop before sowing. This is the single most important step to incentivize farmers to invest in better inputs and modern technology, breaking the cycle of distress sales. Secondly, the implementation of the agricultural income tax must be strictly limited to large landholders, offering genuine relief to small and medium-scale farmers. Thirdly, agricultural research institutions must be actively funded to rapidly develop climate-resilient, high-yielding seed varieties. Fourthly, there needs to be a heavy, non-political crackdown on the counterfeit input mafia. Finally, modern agricultural equipment and water-efficient techniques like Drip Irrigation must be subsidized, aligning with the ADB’s call for the digitalization of the value chain. The farmer is not a mere recipient of state doles; he is the guarantor of national food security and economic sovereignty. The government must end its policy duality, heed the farmer's elegy, and undertake immediate, far-reaching action. Failure to do so will ensure the wheat crisis escalates from an economic challenge to a definitive national tragedy.

 

Atiq Chaudhary | PhD Researcher, Political Analyst & Journalist
He explores the critical intersection of politics, human rights, and democracy. His work, grounded in academic research and frontline journalism, dissects complex socio-political issues to foster informed public discourse.

He can be reached at Atiqch365@gmail.com

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