The Unheeded Election Warning

Column: Atiq Chaudhary 

The most recent round of by-elections in Pakistan, far fro

m being mere local political skirmishes, have delivered a chillingly clear verdict on the nation’s democratic health. The results are a stark, comprehensive report card exposing deep-seated structural frailties: the corrosive dominance of entrenched dynastic politics, the pervasive and deeply concerning public apathy towards the electoral process, and critical internal democratic deficits within the major political parties. Taken together, these issues signal a profound crisis of public confidence and political succession that no party, regardless of its momentary electoral gain, can afford to dismiss. To ignore these indicators would be to gamble recklessly with Pakistan’s democratic trajectory.

A thorough analysis of the by-election outcomes reaffirms a grim reality: the path to political power in Pakistan is increasingly paved by hereditary lineage, not merit or public service. This pattern is the hallmark of a system where political authority is treated as a personal heirloom, passed down within a select group of families rather than earned through experience, capability, or grassroots engagement. The sheer number of contestants who were immediate relatives of sitting or former lawmakers be they spouses, siblings, or close kin is compelling evidence of this systemic decay.

This practice effectively shuts the door on the common citizen, transforming the expensive and complex electoral process into an exclusive arena for the political elite. It breeds a form of familial democracy that fundamentally contradicts the principles of parliamentary representation. The phenomenon is so powerful that even parties like the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf , founded and popularised on an anti-dynasty narrative, succumbed to it. When key PTI figures nominated their wives or close relatives in constituencies where the party broke its own call for a boycott, they demonstrated a profound internal contradiction. The significant pushback and subsequent defeats in these very seats, most notably in Haripur, signalled that the PTI’s core voter base is becoming acutely intolerant of inherited candidacy, viewing it as a clear betrayal of the party's founding ethos. The public is signaling its exhaustion with the same cycle of familial power-sharing.

The defeats suffered by PTI-supported candidates, particularly in constituencies that were traditionally considered safe strongholds, were arguably the most telling feature of the by-elections. The victory of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz in the formerly secure NA-18 Haripur seat long associated with the family of Umar Ayub served as a potent warning: the party can no longer rely on automatic guarantees of success based on past loyalty.

The party’s decisions amounted to a collection of significant strategic errors. The most notable was the internal inconsistency of calling for a nation-wide boycott while simultaneously contesting select seats, often with dynastic candidates. This mixed messaging created widespread confusion among the dedicated party cadre, preventing them from campaigning with the necessary conviction and enthusiasm. Furthermore, the relentless focus on a narrative of confrontation with state institutions, the failure to engage in productive dialogue with political rivals, and the reported discontent among core voters towards the existing leadership structure collectively contributed to the poor performance. In key urban centres like Lahore, the decision to ignore local, dedicated workers and instead award a ticket to a lesser-known family member of a prominent leader sparked severe resentment, resulting in a distinct lack of grassroots mobilisation. The policy of political boycott has proven to be a dangerous, self-limiting strategy that merely clears the field for rival parties, effectively sacrificing political leverage.

The most alarming metric from the by-elections, however, is the voter turnout rate. The data reveals a frightening level of public disengagement, with participation in many constituencies hovering well below 35%. In constituencies like NA-104 Faisalabad (13.23%) and NA-129 Lahore (18.67%), the turnout was staggeringly low. This extreme non-participation casts a deep shadow over the democratic legitimacy of the elected representatives. It is a powerful, passive protest indicating that the electorate has lost fundamental faith in the system's capacity for meaningful change. When voters perceive that the political landscape offers no real alternatives that the power transfer is merely confined to a handful of privileged families regardless of the party in power they rationally conclude that their vote is meaningless. Apathy, in this context, becomes an act of political protest against a system viewed as fundamentally unresponsive, unjust, and rigged. This low turnout is the clearest expression of the public's weakening belief in democratic institutions to solve their real-world problems.

The by-elections deliver an urgent mandate for all political parties to self-correct and restore the public’s shattered confidence. First, Mandatory Internal Democracy, This is the foundational reform. Parties must institute transparent, mandatory internal elections and establish clear, merit-based criteria for ticket issuance. Without dissolving the patronage networks and dismantling the power of dynastic elites within party structures, genuine parliamentary democracy remains an illusion. Party democracy must precede parliamentary democracy.

Secondly, Empowering the Grassroots and Local Governance: Political organizations must urgently shift their focus from central leadership to building robust networks at the Union Council and Ward levels. Crucially, the local government system must be strengthened and made autonomous (potentially requiring constitutional amendments, as hinted by government quarters). A strong local tier is the most effective mechanism for nurturing new, non-dynastic leadership and rebuilding citizen trust by solving issues at the local level.

Thirdly, Comprehensive Electoral and Institutional Reform: Beyond transparent voting processes, comprehensive reforms must target the internal workings of parties, including stricter financial transparency and adherence to democratic principles in all decision-making. Indications of potential constitutional amendments, such as revisions to the National Finance Commission (NFC) or the 28th Amendment, suggest that the institutional elite recognizes the need for structural change to enhance governance and political stability. These macro reforms, combined with micro-level party corrections, are necessary to establish a system of rigorous checks and balances that can rebuild the people’s faith.

If Pakistan’s political establishment continues to prioritize traditional, hereditary practices and resists genuine, systemic reforms, the disillusionment and apathy witnessed in these by-elections will only deepen. The result will be the complete and irreversible erosion of public confidence, threatening the long-term viability of the country's democratic framework